According to the Des Moines Register, Mitt Romney has opened a huge lead among likely Iowa straw pollers. This certainly will effect the Presidential Stock Exchange (PSE) for all involved.
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Predictive modeling is a process used in predictive analytics to create a statistical model of future behavior. Predictive analytics is the area of data mining concerned with forecasting probabilities and trends. A predictive model is made up of a number of predictors, variable factors that are likely to influence future behavior or results. In marketing, for example, a customer's gender, age, and purchase history might predict the likelihood of a future sale.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction#External_links